Dependency theory
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Dependency theory is a body of social science theories, both from developed and developing nations, that are predicated on the notion that there is a center of wealthy states and a periphery of poor, underdeveloped states. Resources are extracted from the periphery and flow towards the states at the center in order to sustain their economic growth and wealth. A central concept is that the poverty of the countries in the periphery is the result of the manner of their integration of the "world system", a view to be contrasted with that of free market economists, who argue that such states are progressing on a path to full integration. This theory is based on the Marxist analysis of inequalities within the world system, dependency argues that underdevelopment of the Global South is a direct result of the development in the Global North.
BasicsThe premises of dependency theory are:
Dependency theory first emerged as a reaction to liberal free trade theories in the 1950s, advocated by Raúl Prebisch, whose research with the Economic Commission on Latin America (ECLA) found that the wealth of poor nations tended to decrease when the wealth of rich nations increased. Paul Baran developed dependency theory from Marxian analysis. The theory quickly divided into diverse schools. Some, like Andre Gunder Frank, adapted it to Marxism. "Standard" dependency theory differs sharply from Marxism, however, arguing against internationalism and any hope of progress in less developed nations towards industrialization and a liberating revolution. Theotonio Dos Santos described a 'new dependency', which focused on both the internal and external relations of less-developed countries of the periphery, derived from a Marxian analysis. Former Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso wrote extensively on dependency theory while in political exile, arguing that it was an approach to studying the economic disparities between the centre and periphery. The American sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein refined the Marxist aspect of the theory, and called it the "World-system." It is has also been associated with Galtung's Structural Theory of Imperialism. Spread of theoryDependency theory became popular in the 1960s and 1970s as a criticism of modernization theory (also known as development theory) that seemed to be failing due to the continued widespread poverty of large parts of the world. With the seeming growth of the East Asian economies and India in the last few years, however, the theory has fallen somewhat out of favour. It disagrees sharply with classical and free-market economics. It is far more accepted in disciplines such as history and anthropology, which can count for or against it. It can also be detected in some of the reasoning underpinning recent NGO campaigns such as Make Poverty History and the Fair Trade movement. Dependency was said to be created with the industrial revolution and the expansion of European empires around the world due to superior power and accumulated wealth. Some argue that before this expansion, the exploitation was internal, with the major economic centres dominating the rest of the country (for example southeast England dominating Britain, or the Northeast United States dominating the south and west). Establishing global trade patterns in the nineteenth century allowed capitalism to spread globally. The wealthy became more isolated from the poor, because they gained disproportionately from imperialistic practices. This minimized the dangers of domestic peasant revolts and rebellions by the poor. Rather than turn on their oppressors as in the American Civil War or in communist revolutions, the poor could no longer reach the wealthy and thus the less developed nations became engulfed in regular civil wars. Once the imperialist rich nations established formal control, it could not be easily removed. This control ensures that all profits in less developed countries are remitted to the developed nations, preventing domestic reinvestment, causing capital flight and thus hindering growth. Quantitative dependency theory and the globalization of the dependency argumentDependency authors explain backwardness and stagnation by the ever-growing dependent insertion of these countries into the world economy. Starting with the writings of Perroux, Prebisch and Rothschild in the 1930s, their leading spokespersons, like Herb Addo; Paul A. Baran; Walden Bello; Fernando Henrique Cardoso; Armando Cordova; Ernest Feder; Andre Gunder Frank; Pablo Gonzales Casanova; Keith Griffin; Kunibert Raffer; Paul Israel Singer; Osvaldo Sunkel; etc. would stress the unequal and socially imbalanced nature of development in regions that are highly dependent on investment from the highly developed countries. Short-term spurts of growth notwithstanding, long-term growth will be imbalanced and unequal, and will tend towards high negative current account balances. Many of these authors focused their attention on Latin America; their leading spokesperson in the Islamic world is the Egyptian economist Samir Amin.
Labor in the export sectors of the periphery is being exploited, while monopolistic structures of international trade let the centers profit from the high prices of their exports to the world markets in comparison to their labor productivity.
(i) transnational capital marginalizes female labor power (ii) the dynamics of growth turn away from those countries, where women still have a strong position on the labor market.
1. regression in both agriculture and small scale industry characterizes the period after the onslaught of foreign domination and colonialism 2. unequal international specialization of the periphery leads to the concentration of activities in export oriented agriculture and or mining. Some industrialization of the periphery is possible under the condition of low wages, which, together with rising productivity, determine that unequal exchange sets in (double factorial terms of trade < 1.0; see Raffer, 1987 ) 3. these structures determine in the long run a rapidly growing tertiary sector with hidden unemployment and the rising importance of rent in the overall social and economic system 4. the development blocks of peripheral capitalism (chronic current account balance deficits, re-exported profits of foreign investments, deficient business cycles of the periphery that provide important markets for the centers during world economic upswings) 5. structural imbalances in the political and social relationships, inter alia a strong 'compradore' element and the rising importance of state capitalism and an indebted state class For this reason, most concept of dependence at least includes three dimensions:
The analysis of development patterns in the 1990s and beyond is complicated by the fact that capitalism develops not smoothly, but with very strong and self-repeating ups and downs, called cycles. Empirical research starts here from well-known research results of Joshua Goldstein, Volker Bornschier, and Luigi Scandella. Cyclical fluctuations have also a profound effect on cross-national comparisons of economic growth and societal development in the medium and long run. What could have been spectacular long-run growth, in the end might turn out to be just a short run cyclical spurt after a long recession. Cycle time plays an important role. Giovanni Arrighi's thought is especially worthwhile mentioning here: that the logic of accumulation on a world scale shifts along time, and that we again witness during the 1980s and beyond a deregulated phase of world capitalism with a logic, characterized - in contrast to earlier regulatory cycles - by the dominance of financial capital. At this stage, the role of unequal exchange in the entire relationship of dependency cannot be underestimated. Unequal exchange is given, if double factorial terms of trade of the respective country are < 1.0 (Raffer, 1987, Amin, 1975). Labor in the export sectors of the periphery is being exploited, while monopolistic structures of international trade let the centers profit from the high prices of their exports to the world markets in comparison to their labor productivity. Since double factorial terms of trade are simply net barter terms of trade weighted by productivities (F) of X, exports, and M, imports, the formula (1) ((PX * FX)/(PM*FM)) = 1 denotes the conditions of ‘equal’ exchange as opposed to unequal exchange: (2) ((PX * FX)/(PM*FM)) = < 1.0 while nations with (3) ((PX * FX)/(PM*FM)) = > 1.0 are the countries that benefited from unequal exchange. Losses or gains from unequal transfer are calculated as the difference between a "fair value" of exports/imports and the "actual (unfair) value" of exports/imports. The estimation formula according to Kohler/Tausch is: (4) T = d*X - X where (5) d = the exchange rate deviation index (also designated as "ERD" or “ERDI” in the literature) X = the volume of exports from a low- or middle-income country to high-income countries (valued at the actual exchange rate) T = the unrecorded transfer of value (gain or loss) resulting from unequal transfer The transfer of value from the peripheries to the center, according to the reasoning put forward by Gernot Kohler, is gigantic, and amounts to 24% of Periphery GDP in 1995. (Number of countries: OECD N=19 (1965) and N=22 (1995); NON-OECD N=88 (1965) and N=97 (1995)) [See Kohler/Tausch, 2002] ImplicationsWhile there are many different and conflicting ideas on how developing countries can alleviate the effects of the world system, several of the following protectionist/nationalist practices were adopted at one time or another by such countries:
Criticism by neo-liberal economistsDependency theory has been criticized by free-market economists such as Peter Bauer and Martin Wolf, who believe it will lead to:
Proponents of dependency theory claim that the theory of comparative advantage breaks down when capital - including both physical capital like machines and financial capital - is highly mobile, as it is under the conditions of globalization. For this reason, it is claimed that dependency theory can offer new insights into a world of highly mobile multinational corporations. This is countered, however, by the argument that the conditions of globalization make comparative advantage all the more sound. Two of the key assumptions of comparative advantage - zero transportation costs and zero communication cost - are arguably more realistic in the contemporary global marketplace than in earlier times. Whilst zero communication costs are supported by the internet, it would appear, however, that the theory of the tendency to zero transport costs is dependent on the costs of energy. Furthermore, the assumptions of free trade models only ever includes two factors of production - namely the globalisation of capital and resources, but not labour. Currently the free movement of labour is being restricted world-wide with various forms of immigration control. Market economists point to many examples they claim disprove dependency theory: the improvement of India's economy after it moved from state-controlled business to open trade is one of the most often cited (see also economy of India, Commanding Heights). India's example seemingly contradicts dependency theorists' claims concerning comparative advantage and mobility, as much as its economic growth originated from movements such as outsourcing - one of the most mobile forms of capital transfer. However, South Korea was able to rise out of poverty while using many tenets which Dependency theory advises. Free market theorists see dependency theorists' complaints as legitimate, but their policy prescriptions as self-fulfilling prophecies, in that the policies only aggravate the disparity between the developed nations and the underdeveloped countries. Future interesting debates could touch upon the so-called Balassa-Samuelson effect, especially in the new member countries of the European Union in Eastern Europe, and the problem of the assymetrical reputation of currencies. Towards a neo-classical/dependency theory synthesis?Established economics teaches us that for income gaps to be bridged, a process of convergence sets in that was described by Bela Balassa and Paul Samuelson, independently from each other, more than 4 decades ago, and which is called ever since the Balassa-Samuelson effect. For dependency theory, this effect is as important as for standard economics. Components of, say, electricity plants in rich and poor countries will be traded on the world market at about the same, high world market prices, while a haircut in a rich country will be much more expensive than a haircut in a poor country. For economists, these huge differences of price levels in the non-tradable sectors are usually interpreted as the real reason of the welfare differences between the rich and the poor countries. Under these conditions, Balassa and Samuelson observed, the poor country has one main possibility: raising the level of wages in the non-tradable sector. Since a large part of the non-tradables depend in one way or the other on the government (social services etc.), a rising budget deficit will be one of the main negative consequences of the catching-up process. The real appreciation of the currency of the poor country will indeed take place, but the real appreciation of the currency will be confronted by a general macro-economic constraint in the economy, i.e. the worsening budget situation.
It is surprising that European policymaking now completely changed the roadmaps of what should be achieved under the Balassa-Samuelson effect. By institutionally now demanding from EU-member states in the so-called 14 politically binding Lisbon structural indicators that EU-member countries henceforth should have a low international price level and hence also low price levels in the non-tradable sectors, European economic policy completely reverses Balassa/Samuelson.
One of the political absurdities of the price level indicator is that countries suffering from currency crises are performing well on the price level indicator, while countries with a sound real appreciation of their currency – in the tradition of Balassa/Samuelson – are performing badly according to Eurostat.
Structuralist economists, like Stanford Professor emeritus Pan Yotopoulos, usually warn the weaker countries of the periphery that “Currency substitution represents an asymmetric demand from Mexicans to hold dollars as a store of value, a demand that is not reciprocated by Americans holding pesos as a hedge against the devaluation of the dollar!” (Yotopoulos and Sawada, 2005)
“in free currency markets hard currencies fluctuate, while soft currencies depriciate systematically (...) The alternative scenario deprives devaluation of any of its remedial properties that in the conventional view lead to a process of stable interactions and equilibrium....” Their argument might be relevant for the continuing low international price level of countries like Turkey after the currency crisis of recent years. They think that the basic problem of international currency markets is asymmetric reputation. This process of asymmetric reputation of the periphery deepens the cycle of underdevelopment:
LiteratureThe vast literature on the subject is surveyed and documented, among others in: Amin S. (1976), 'Unequal Development: An Essay on the Social Formations of Peripheral Capitalism' New York: Monthly Review Press. Amin S. (1994c), 'Re-reading the postwar period: an intellectual itinerary' Translated by Michael Wolfers. New York: Monthly Review Press. Amin S. (1997b), 'Die Zukunft des Weltsystems. Herausforderungen der Globalisierung. Herausgegeben und aus dem Franzoesischen uebersetzt von Joachim Wilke' Hamburg: VSA. Bornschier V. (1976), 'Wachstum, Konzentration und Multinationalisierung von Industrieunternehmen' Frauenfeld and Stuttgart: Huber. Bornschier V. (1996), 'Western society in transition' New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Publishers. Bornschier V. and Chase - Dunn Ch. K (1985), 'Transnational Corporations and Underdevelopment' N.Y., N.Y.: Praeger. Köhler G. and Tausch A. (2002) Global Keynesianism: Unequal exchange and global exploitation. Huntington NY, Nova Science. Sunkel O. (1966), 'The Structural Background of Development Problems in Latin America' Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 97, 1: pp. 22 ff. Sunkel O. (1973), 'El subdesarrollo latinoamericano y la teoria del desarrollo' Mexico: Siglo Veintiuno Editores, 6a edicion. Tausch A. (1993, with Fred Prager as co-author), 'Towards a Socio - Liberal Theory of World Development' Basingstoke and New York: Macmillan/St. Martin's Press. Tausch A. and Peter Herrmann (2002) Globalization and European Integration. Huntington NY, Nova Science. Yotopoulos P. A. (1966), ‘Economic analysis and economic policy’. Edited by Pan A. Yotopoulos. Contributors: Arthur S. Goldberger [and others]. Athens [Center of Planning and Economic Research] (Center of Planning and Economic Research. Training seminar series, 6). Yotopoulos P. A. (1967), ‘Allocative efficiency in economic development; a cross section analysis of Epirus farming’ Athens [Center of Planning and Economic Research] (Center of Planning and Economic Research. Research monograph series, 18). Yotopoulos P. A. (1977), ‘The population problem and the development solution’ Stanford, Calif.: Food Research Institute, Stanford University, (Food Research Institute studies; v. 16, no. 1). Yotopoulos P. A. (1984), ‘Middle income classes and food crises’ Athens: Centre of Planning and Economic Research, (Papers / Centre of Planning and Economic Research; 5). Yotopoulos P. A. (1989a), ‘Distributions of real income: Within countries and by world income classes’. The Review of income and wealth, no. 4, pp. 357 ff. . Yotopoulos P. A. (1989b), ‘The (Rip) Tide of Privatization: Lessons from Chile.’ World development, vol. 17, no. 5, pp. 683 ff. . Yotopoulos P. A. (1989c), ‘The meta-production function approach to technological change in world agriculture.’ Journal of development economics, vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 241 ff. . Yotopoulos P. A. (1996), ‘Exchange rate parity for trade and development: theory, tests, and case studies’ Cambridge [England]; New York: Cambridge University Press. Yotopoulos P. A. (1997a), ‘Financial crises and the benefits of mildly repressed exchange rates’ Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics, Economic Research Institute, (Working paper series in economics and finance; no. 202, October 1997). Yotopoulos P. A. (1997b), ‘Food security, gender and population’ New York, NY: United Nations Population Fund, ‘E/850/1997’. Yotopoulos P. A. (2004), ‘The Success of the Euro, Globalization, and the EU Enlargement’ University of Florence, available at: http://www.ceistorvergata.it/conferenze&convegni/mondragone/XVI_papers/paper-yotopoulos2.pdf . Yotopoulos P. A. and Floro S. L. (1992), ‘Income distribution, transaction costs and market fragmentation in informal credit markets.’ Cambridge journal of economics, 1992, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 303 ff. Yotopoulos P. A. and Lin J. Y. (1993), ‘Purchasing Power Parities for Taiwan: The Basic Data for 1985 and International Comparisons.’ Journal of economic development, 1993, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 7 ff. Yotopoulos P. A., Nugent J. B. (1976), ‘Economics of development: empirical investigations’ New York: Harper & Row. Yotopoulos P. and Sawada Y. (2005), ‘Exchange Rate Misalignment: A New test of Long-Run PPP Based on Cross-Country Data’ CIRJE Discussion Paper CIRJE-F-318, February 2005, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo, available at: http://www.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/cirje/research/dp/2005/2005cf318.pdf Links
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